{"id":22357,"date":"2025-12-16T13:12:18","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T10:12:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/?p=22357"},"modified":"2025-12-16T13:12:18","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T10:12:18","slug":"informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"Informal consultation with countries in transition"},"content":{"rendered":"
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[vc_row unlock_row_content=”yes” row_height_percent=”0″ override_padding=”yes” h_padding=”1″ top_padding=”3″ bottom_padding=”2″ overlay_alpha=”50″ equal_height=”yes” gutter_size=”2″ column_width_percent=”100″ shift_y=”0″ z_index=”0″ uncode_shortcode_id=”166140″][vc_column column_width_use_pixel=”yes” gutter_size=”3″ font_family=”font-555555″ overlay_alpha=”50″ shift_x=”0″ shift_y=”0″ shift_y_down=”0″ shift_y_down_fixed=”yes” z_index=”0″ medium_width=”0″ mobile_width=”0″ column_width_pixel=”1000″][vc_empty_space empty_h=”1″][vc_custom_heading text_color=”color-165108″ heading_semantic=”h1″ text_font=”font-555555″ text_size=”fontsize-189933″ text_weight=”600″ text_height=”fontheight-131383″ text_space=”fontspace-160099″ uncode_shortcode_id=”101572″ text_color_type=”uncode-palette”]Informal consultation with countries in transition[\/vc_custom_heading][vc_custom_heading text_color=”accent” text_font=”font-555555″ text_size=”fontsize-182326″ text_weight=”600″ text_height=”fontheight-131383″ text_space=”fontspace-160099″ uncode_shortcode_id=”338569″ text_color_type=”uncode-palette”]Date | 16 December 2025[\/vc_custom_heading][vc_column_text uncode_shortcode_id=”175883″]<\/p>\n

Tomorrow (17 December), the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) will hold an informal consultation with countries in transition\u2014namely Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mali, Niger, and Sudan.<\/p>\n

This will be the fourth such informal consultation since the PSC introduced this format into its working methods in April 2023, following its 14th<\/sup> Retreat on Working Methods in November 2022. The informal consultation was established to enable direct engagement with representatives of countries suspended from AU activities due to unconstitutional changes of government. It drew on Article 8(11) of the PSC Protocol. Tomorrow\u2019s consultation is expected to examine progress made and challenges encountered in ongoing transitions since the last consultation in March 2025.<\/p>\n

Two notable developments have occurred since the previous consultation. First, military coups in Guinea-Bissau and Madagascar have expanded the list of countries undergoing political transitions to seven. Second, the lifting of Gabon\u2019s suspension from the AU despite the fact that the elections did not comply with Article 25(4) of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG) on the ineligibility of perpetrators of unconstitutional changes of government in elections organised to restore constitutional order. As noted in our April 2025 Monthly Digest<\/a>, Nguema\u2019s participation and victory, in clear violation of ACDEG, and the subsequent lifting of Gabon\u2019s suspension without the PSC affirming its full commitment to Article 25(4), is not without consequences for AU\u2019s purported policy of zero tolerance to coups. It signalled to coup makers and members of the military in other African countries that the PSC may be \u2018willing not to insist on full compliance with AU norms if they opt for speeding up the \u2018restoration\u2019 of constitutional order as long as they hold elections.\u2019<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, Guinea\u2019s coup leader and interim president, Mamady Doumbouya, is poised to follow Gabon\u2019s path as the country prepares for elections. The PSC is likely to discuss technical and financial support for credible elections and, echoing its 1284th<\/sup> session, emphasise the importance of inclusivity in Guinea\u2019s political process. In this respect, Guinea\u2019s representative is expected to highlight progress toward the \u2018restoration\u2019 of constitutional order, particularly the September 2025 constitutional referendum and the general elections scheduled for 28 December 2025 and the electoral support the country needs. These elections are meant to conclude Guinea\u2019s transition period. However, Doumbouya formally entered the presidential race in early November\u2014reneging on his earlier pledge not to run. The PSC, during its field mission<\/a> to Conakry in May and its 1284th<\/sup> session<\/a>, urged the transition authorities to honour their commitment to complete the transition by December 2025, but stopped short of reminding them of the prohibition under Article 25(4) of ACDEG against coup leaders contesting elections. With Doumbouya now a candidate\u2014and his victory highly probable\u2014the PSC may follow the exact approach it applied to Gabon, unless the regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), raises concern. Under the circumstances, whether or not the coup leaders in other countries will run for elections is now a matter of their choice and is not expected to face any opposition from the AU for non-compliance with Article 24(5) of ACDEG.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Sudan\u2019s representative may raise the issue of lifting the country\u2019s suspension, citing the May 2025 appointment of Kamil al-Tayeb Idris as civilian Prime Minister by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Chair of the Transitional Sovereign Council and head of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). Following the appointment, it is to be recalled that the Chairperson of the AU Commission welcomed it as \u2018a step towards inclusive governance.\u2019 However, the appointment of the Prime Minister was not a result of national dialogue, nor did it involve the participation of Sudanese political and social forces. Indeed, discussions around the lifting of Sudan\u2019s suspension remain premature under the prevailing circumstances, where the deteriorating security situation does not allow for an inclusive political process, there is no national dialogue and a clear pathway for the eventual convening of elections. These steps have \u2018supposedly\u2019 become<\/em> the basic requirements the AU expects before lifting sanctions. Recent precedents of the Council suggest that sanctions can be lifted as long as a country organises a national dialogue and elections, even when the very actors who carried out a coup freely participate in those elections. It has become an acceptable shortcut around ACDEG. Additionally, the representative of Sudan may encourage the PSC to have a field mission to Port Sudan. In the light of recent developments including the fall of El Fasher, the last remaining major city in Darfur and the Heglig oilfield, into the hands of the para militaryRapid Support Forces, marking the de facto<\/em> partition of Sudan and killing of civilians and the attack and the recent killing of UN Peacekeepers, the discussion may centre on deploying a mechanism for humanitarian and civilian protection in El Fasher and identifying credible pathways for accelerating efforts for peace as well as implementing the previous decisions of the PSC on the situation in Sudan.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the situation in Madagascar is expected to feature in the consultation, given the military takeover that unfolded. In October 2025, a faction of the Madagascar Armed Forces led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina seized power amid mass protests in the capital Antananarivo, ousting President Andry Rajoelina and prompting the AU to suspend Madagascar\u2019s membership for violating the Union\u2019s zero-tolerance policy on unconstitutional changes of government. The PSC, at its 1305th<\/sup> and subsequent emergency sessions, condemned the coup, reaffirmed its rejection of any unconstitutional seizure of power, and called on all Malagasy actors, civilian and military, to exercise restraint, engage in inclusive dialogue, and work towards a peaceful and lawful resolution within constitutional frameworks. In its recent session held on 20 November, the Council emphasised the need for coordinated AU-SADC efforts, including high-level missions and strengthening the AU Liaison Office on the ground to support mediation, reconciliation, and stabilisation. The PSC also placed strong emphasis on the need for enhanced coordination and division of labour among the AU, SADC, and the Indian Ocean Commission, while calling on the AU Commission and partners to provide financial and technical support for the electoral management body and the drafting of a new constitution, and to extend support through the Africa Facility to Support Inclusive Transitions (AFSIT), conditional on the implementation of the Transition Road Map. These issues are likely to feature in tomorrow\u2019s consultation with countries in transition, particularly the extent to which regional and continental coordination mechanisms are effectively aligned in supporting the country\u2019s transition to a democratic order. Meanwhile, in the remaining countries\u2014Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger\u2014relations with the regional bloc ECOWAS remain strained, as the three states continue consolidating their alliance through the confederation established in 2024. It is becoming increasingly clear that the security situation gets in the way of and provides a pretext for the lack of focused progress in the transition process. In Mali, the National Transitional Council adopted a bill on 3 July 2025 revising the Transitional Charter, granting General Assimi Go\u00efta a renewable five-year term as President of the Transition \u2018until peace is restored.\u2019 Similarly, in Burkina Faso, the transition period was extended for another five years, starting in July 2024\u2014the year initially planned for its conclusion. The new charter, signed by Captain Ibrahim Traor\u00e9, also allows him to contest in the elections. Niger has taken a similar path. A national conference on rebuilding the country in February 2025 decided that the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland (CNSP), which seized power in July 2023, would remain in power for five years without any clear timeline for elections.<\/p>\n

The Council is therefore expected to reiterate the concerns expressed during its 1304th<\/sup><\/a> ministerial session on 30 September 2025, which noted with \u2018deep concern\u2019 the \u2018slow pace of political transition processes\u2019 and urged the transitional authorities to accelerate inclusive transitions, engage all stakeholders, and facilitate genuine political dialogue. It may also again call on these authorities to adhere to their respective transitional roadmaps and operationalise joint transition monitoring committees.<\/p>\n

While the issue of progress in the transition process may be the focus of the session, this cannot be separated from and is deeply tied to the possibility of arresting the deepening and widening threat facing these countries. A major issue for tomorrow\u2019s session is the question of how AU and ECOWAS overhaul their approach by integrating the quest for restoration of constitutional order into a wider stabilisation and state authority expansion strategy backed by a security mechanism they develop and deploy together with the Sahel countries to address the existential threat facing these countries.<\/strong><\/p>\n

As such, tomorrow\u2019s consultation needs to both situate the discussion on transition in these countries within the insecurity facing them and consider the kind of role the AU and ECOWAS bring to the counterterrorism efforts of these countries. Similar to Sudan and unlike Gabon and Guinea, the push for progress in the transitional process cannot be abstracted out of the pressing issue facing these countries, which is the terrorism menace that has grown to become an existential threat to these countries. A clear illustration of this involves the recent developments in Mali, with the capital Bamako under imminent threat and cut off from supply routes. Jama\u2019at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has expanded operations from the north and centre into the western and southern regions of Mali. Its fuel blockade since September has caused severe shortages, power cuts, and economic paralysis in Bamako and other cities, triggering public unrest and fears<\/a> of broader instability. Weekly fuel deliveries have reportedly<\/a> fallen from 1,000 to 200 tankers. Facing mounting pressure, General Go\u00efta has replaced several senior military officials, including the deputy chief of staff of the armed forces, the head of military security and the ground forces\u2019 chief of staff, highlighting internal strains within the regime.<\/p>\n

The PSC is also expected to discuss the AU\u2019s recent intensified diplomatic engagement with these Sahelian countries and explore ways to enhance coordination. In May, the AU Commission Chairperson met representatives of the three countries in Addis Ababa to explore renewed engagement. This was followed by a visit from Angola\u2019s Minister of External Relations\u2014delivering a message from President Jo\u00e3o Louren\u00e7o, the current AU Chairperson\u2014reaffirming the AU\u2019s commitment to Sahel stability and counterterrorism efforts. In July, the AU Chairperson appointed President \u00c9variste Ndayishimiye of Burundi as Special Envoy for the Sahel. Angola also proposed hosting a summit on the Sahel in Luanda, welcomed by the PSC during its 1304th<\/sup> session. Additionally, former Gambian Foreign Minister Mamadou Tangara was appointed as Special Representative for Mali and the Sahel, and Head of the AU Mission in Mali and the Sahel (MISAHEL). The PSC also decided to establish a Task Force to support counterterrorism in the region and called for a field visit by Special Envoy Ndayishimiye to engage directly with the transitional authorities. In this context, the informal consultation could provide an opportunity to discuss how to advance these initiatives and follow up on the decision of PSC and ECOWAS during their annual consultative meeting last May \u2018to develop a security cooperation framework involving the AU and ECOWAS engagement with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, in order to more effectively address insecurity in the West Africa Region.\u2019<\/p>\n

In addition to the three Sahelian countries, a further concern is the widening pattern of governance instability across West Africa. This includes the recent coup d\u2019\u00e9tat in Guinea-Bissau and the attempted coup in Benin, developments that underscored the growing threat of unconstitutional changes of government and prompted ECOWAS to declare a state of emergency. As such, the consultation is expected to consider the situation in Guinea-Bissau following the coup d\u2019\u00e9tat of 26 November, which unfolded just before the release of the results of the presidential runoff between incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embal\u00f3 and his main challenger, Fernando Dias, on 26 November. In a statement issued during the crisis, prior to Senegal\u2019s confirmation that it had granted Embal\u00f3 asylum, the military announced that the President and several senior officials were \u201cunder the control\u201d of the High Military Command. In response to the coup, the AU convened a PSC session on 28 November, during which it condemned and rejected the unconstitutional change of government and decided to immediately suspend Guinea-Bissau from participation in all AU activities, organs, and institutions until constitutional order is restored<\/strong>. The Council further requested the AU Post-Conflict, Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) Centre in Cairo, in collaboration with UN peacebuilding institutions, to engage relevant national stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau to support development activities aimed at preventing further relapses into political crisis. In addition, the PSC mandated the Chairperson of the Commission to establish an inclusive AU monitoring mechanism<\/strong>, in collaboration with ECOWAS and other relevant stakeholders, to closely follow developments on the ground, particularly the implementation of ECOWAS and PSC decisions. At the sub-regional level, the 68th<\/sup> Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS Authority of Heads of State and Government<\/strong>, held in Abuja on 14 December, rejected the transition programme announced by Guinea-Bissau\u2019s military authorities and called for a swift return to constitutional order. The Authority warned of targeted sanctions<\/strong> against individuals obstructing the process and mandated the ECOWAS Chair to lead a high-level delegation to Guinea-Bissau to engage the junta.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, the representative of Sudan is expected to update the PSC on the recent developments in the conflict in Sudan, including the fall of El-Fasher\u2014the last major SAF stronghold\u2014 to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 26 October, and on reports of attacks on civilians and mass killings committed during and after the takeover. During the emergency meeting<\/a> held in Sudan on 28 October, the PSC \u2018strongly\u2019 condemned the \u2018criminal activities against Sudanese civilians and the grave violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, perpetrated by the paramilitary RSF\u2019. The emergency session further requested the AU Commission to regularly monitor and report heinous crimes committed in Sudan, develop proposals on how to address them to prevent their further escalation, develop a plan for the protection of civilians, and make recommendations to the PSC within three weeks. It also requested the Special Envoy on the Prevention of Genocide and Other Mass Atrocities to urgently undertake a fact-finding mission to Sudan and report back to the Council with recommendations within three weeks. While meeting these deadlines may prove challenging, tomorrow\u2019s consultation could consider ways Sudan might facilitate the implementation of these tasks.<\/p>\n

As with previous consultations, tomorrow\u2019s engagement is not expected to result in an outcome document.<\/p>\n

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16 December 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[254],"tags":[108,537],"class_list":["post-22357","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-popular-uprising","tag-unconstitutional-change-of-governments","tag-537"],"yoast_head":"\nInformal consultation with countries in transition - Amani Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Informal consultation with countries in transition - Amani Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"16 December 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Amani Africa\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-16T10:12:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Amani Africa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Amani Africa\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"13 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Amani Africa\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/#\/schema\/person\/fbb3b4853ff9f64c9965ec59aeefd083\"},\"headline\":\"Informal consultation with countries in transition\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-16T10:12:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/\"},\"wordCount\":2573,\"commentCount\":0,\"keywords\":[\"Unconstitutional change of Governments\",\"2025\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Popular Uprisings and Unconstitutional Changes of Government\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/amaniafrica-et.org\/informal-consultation-with-countries-in-transition\/\",\"name\":\"Informal consultation with countries in transition - 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